IMPORTANT DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA AND THE SURROUNDING COUNTRIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Šojić Prof. dr Milan S. (Prof. dr Milan Šojić, je član Naučnog društva ekonomista Srbije i član Odbora za ekonomske nauke SANU), milansojic49@gmail.com

Demographic trends are of special importance for every country. This paper analyses the key demographic trends: in the Republic of Serbia, former SFRY countries and selected South-East European countries. The authors composed a comparative analysis of the key demographic changes in the late 20th and the early 21st century, including the latest data and assessments available in 2017. We used the information based on national statistics, as well as data of the United Nations (UN Population Division) and other most important international organisations and institutions (World Bank, Eurostat, OECD, etc.). Based on the conducted research, we established that in the transition period following the demolition of the Berlin Wall, there was a drop in the birth rate and population numbers in Serbia and most of the South-East European countries. According to the World Bank data, over the past two decades, these countries experienced large-scale population migrations towards the developed EU countries and North America. An empirical analysis, which we conducted for the period 1990–2015, revealed a correlation between the decrease of population in Serbia and the South-East European countries on the one hand, and the key economic indicators – such as real economic growth, the balance of trade and payments, external and internal debt movements, etc. – on the other.

Keywords: demographic trends, Serbia, South-Eastern Europe, economic growth, trade balance, balance of payments, external debt, internal debt