The Future of EU-China Relations – Possible Scenarios –

Stanković Nevena (Naučni saradnik u Institutu za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd), nevena@diplomacy.bg.ac.rs

Lately, international politics has been characterised by tensions among major powers that disrupt united action on global challenges such as the climate crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. In the context of the ongoing challenges that the European Union (EU) and the People\'s Republic of China (China) are facing, the nature of this partnership has been changing. Since the end of 2020, foreign policy tensions between the EU and China have been intensifying significantly. This is demonstrated by the mutual sanctions imposed on both Chinese and EU officials, the frozen process of ratification of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investments, as well as the more confrontational attitude of the EU towards China. On the other hand, although the EU does not freeze relations with China, it also does not have a coherent strategy towards China. From the perspective of a practical geopolitical approach, the article examines possible scenarios for this complex relationship in the future: further raising of tensions in EU-China relations, gradual mutual distancing, and perspectives for an optimistic outcome in relations between the two sides, with possible implications for the EU and its member states. The literature review, content analysis of relevant documents, discourse analysis, and the scenario method are the primary research methods. The main finding of the paper is that in the foreseeable future, the most certain scenario is the gradual distancing of the EU and China, which could be characterised as a deteriorated status quo. In addition, the paper analyses the possible consequences of the negative outcome of the situation and how the further deterioration of relations would affect trade and investment, increase import costs, and endanger a green transition for the whole European Union.

Keywords: European Union, China, relations, Comprehensive Agreement on Investments, scenario, tensions, status quo, deterioration of relations