Saudi Arabia and the Bomb: Are Nuclear Weapons an Option?

Pajić Nataša (Institut za međunarodnu politiku i privredu, Beograd, Srbij), natasa.pajic@diplomacy.bg.ac.rs

This paper analyzes Saudi Arabia’s nuclear aspirations, particularly in the context of Iranian nuclearization. The primary objective is to identify the key factors driving Saudi Arabia’s nuclear ambitions. The central research question guiding this analysis is: Does the accelerated development of Iran’s nuclear program serve as a catalyst for Saudi Arabia’s own nuclear ambitions? The theoretical framework underpinning this study is rooted in the balance of threat theory, developed within the realist school of international relations. Methodologically, the study relies on content analysis and discourse analysis. Research findings suggest that the rapid development of Iran’s nuclear program is a key factor elevating the existing Iranian threat to a new level— one deemed unacceptable to Saudi Arabia, especially in light of its perception of Iran’s aggressive intentions. The paper concludes that, despite its current lack of infrastructure and technological capability to match Iran in the short term, Saudi Arabia is likely to pursue a latent nuclear capability. This course of action is particularly plausible amid growing uncertainty surrounding extended deterrence from its allies. In doing so, Saudi Arabia is expected to adopt a strategy of nuclear hedging, similar to that employed by Iran.

Keywords: Saudi Arabia, Iran, nuclear weapons, threat perception, balance of threat theory.