Risk propensity as a limiting factor in the creation of the Russian-Chinese alliance

Preradović Nikola (Institut za strategijska istraživanja, Beograd.), nikola.preradovic@mod.gov.rs

One of the important phenomena of international politics in the decades after the end of the Cold War is the rise of Russian-Chinese relations, which Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in 2022 described as “friendship without limits”. The initial unifying element was provided by the threat perception embodied in American policy during the enormous imbalance in resources between the leading powers in the system. However, the identification of a significant common threat and the increasingly intense partnership have not, for now, resulted in the formation of a military alliance between the two states. The traditional approaches of the balance of power or the balance of threat does not provide an explanation for this empirical phenomenon. The paper points out, from the perspective of neoclassical realism, the specific characteristics of states dissatisfied with the existing international order that can encourage or limit the establishment of alliances. For revisionist powers, these are the scope of advocated changes to the existing international order and the risk appetite for their implementation. In the context of Russian-Chinese relations, although both powers are interested in limited changes to the order, there is a difference in risk appetite. Russia has become progressively more risk-averse since the end of the Cold War, culminating in the War in Ukraine in 2022, while China, despite its ambitious strategy, has maintained a higher degree of risk aversion. A differentiated approach to risk reflects on the relationship between potential allies. Asymmetric readiness to use force has limited the possibility of developing Russian-Chinese relations into a classic military alliance.

Keywords: Russia, China, revisionism, order, balance, threat.