Strategic Patronage and Proxy Politics: Russia in Serbia vs Türkiye in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Ismayilli Anvar (Research fellow of the Institute of Economics of the Ministry of Science and Education of the Republic of Azerbaijan, PhD student of the Institute for European Studies of the Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University), anvarrashidoglu@gmail.com

This paper investigates the asymmetric geopolitical strategies of Russia and Türkiye in the Western Balkans through a comparative case study of their respective alignments with Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. As Euro-Atlantic institutions face objective challenges in deepening integration across the region, Russia and Türkiye have expanded their influence by cultivating strategic partnerships grounded in historical, cultural, and identity-based ties. This dynamic has resulted in a de facto proxy structure: Serbia emerging as Russia’s principal strategic partner in the post-Yugoslav space, and the Bosnian political establishment functioning as Türkiye’s core associate within the complex landscape of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in which competing external aspirations and the Croatian political element play a considerable role in shaping the domestic landscape. Using a constructivist and neo-imperial theoretical lens, the paper argues that although Russia and Türkiye pursue distinct modalities of influence, both strategically engage with and reinforce historically embedded identity cleavages. In doing so, they shape a regional order, characterised by selective alignments and competing external orientations. The paper concludes by assessing the implications for regional stability, EU/NATO enlargement, and the evolving balance of power in the Western Balkans.

Keywords: Strategic Patronage, Proxy Politics, Balkans, Türkiye and Russia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia.